Peter Brandt shorts Bitcoin futures after breakdown from key sample. Liquidity above value and Fed strikes add stress. $40K in sight?
Peter Brandt, a veteran dealer with many years of market expertise, has taken a brief place in Bitcoin futures.
Regardless of being a long-term holder of BTC, Brandt is buying and selling in opposition to it within the brief time period based mostly on technical alerts that counsel additional draw back is feasible.
Broadening Sample Signifies Danger
On the every day chart, Brandt identified a broadening formation, typically known as a megaphone sample. It reveals 5 distinct swings, with the latest prime close to $126,000. After this excessive, Bitcoin moved right into a sideways vary between $106,000 and $116,000 earlier than dipping beneath the south boundary.
At present, the value sits close to $109,500, following a 2% drop previously day and a pair of% during the last week. This breakdown beneath the vary helps Brandt’s short-term bearish setup. If the transfer continues, potential value ranges to observe embrace $97,000 and $84,721.
Order E book Exhibits Liquidity Above Value
Market knowledge from Coinglass reveals that a lot of the order e-book liquidity sits above the present value. The $113,000 to $116,000 vary comprises giant clusters of restrict orders and stop-losses. Rekt Fencer posted,
All $BTC liquidity is sitting above the present value.
Only one pump and shorts get wiped.
Is the V-reversal loading proper now? pic.twitter.com/57OzobYCei
— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) October 31, 2025
A sudden transfer increased might set off brief liquidations, resulting in a fast value bounce. Beneath present ranges, there are fewer giant orders, which can weaken help on the way in which down.
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Notably, Bitcoin has a historical past of huge drawdowns after hitting the higher boundary of its long-term development channel. Previous rejections have led to drops of 84% and 77%. The newest chart reveals one other rejection close to this similar trendline, with a possible 73% decline if the sample holds.
Rekt Fencer added,
“Each time Bitcoin rejects this line, it dumps 70%… Hope you’re prepared for $BTC at $40,000.”
A transfer towards that zone would match the decrease boundary of the multi-year channel.
Fee Reduce Sparks Market Response
The Federal Reserve’s latest 0.25% charge reduce led to volatility throughout markets. Bitcoin briefly fell beneath $108,000 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, as merchants reacted to the coverage shift. Some described it as a traditional “purchase the rumor, promote the information” occasion.
In the meantime, on-chain knowledge shows falling BTC balances on exchanges, suggesting lowered provide. As CryptoPotato reported, giant transactions above $1 million have additionally reached a two-month excessive, which factors to continued curiosity from giant holders. Nonetheless, the asset stays underneath stress as short-term uncertainty persists.
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