Bitcoin’s choices market has a brand new obsession: Christmas week. In a submit Thursday, energy-sector managing associate David Eng argued the subsequent eight days (December 19 by way of December 26) may outline the near-term cycle for BTC, not due to a macro headline or some sudden ETF stampede, however as a result of a big chunk of dealer gamma exposure is scheduled to roll off the board in two photographs.
At press time, bitcoin traded round $86,928, after swinging between roughly $84,461 and $89,230 intraday. Eng’s framing is blunt and really “choices individuals”: the market is being mechanically pinned, and the pin has an expiry date
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“The narrative isn’t nearly tomorrow. We’re staring down the barrel of a ‘Double-Barreled’ Liquidity Occasion that may wipe 67% of all the derivatives board clear by December twenty sixth,” Eng wrote. “Bitcoin is buying and selling at $88,752, deep within the -25% Worth Zone (Development Worth: $118k). The spring is coiled, however two large structural weights are holding the lid down.”
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These “weights,” in his telling, are two expiries with significant gamma connected: roughly $128 million tied to Dec. 19 (21% of the overall he tracks) and one other $287 million at Dec. 26, which he calls the “boss degree” ceiling. He labels the mixed $415 million a coming “Gamma Flush,” arguing that when it clears, the hedging drag that’s been compressing spot worth motion ought to ease.
The sensible level is much less mystical than it sounds. If sellers are sitting on significant gamma round a good cluster of strikes, their delta-hedging can dampen volatility and hold spot gravitating round sure ranges till that publicity decays or expires — the sort of “why does this tape really feel glued?” frustration merchants know too nicely.
Eng’s map is constructed round very particular traces within the sand: $85k–$90k because the “mud” zone the place hedging stress retains snapping worth again, and $90,616 because the flip degree he’s watching across the Dec. 19 expiry.
“Stage 1: The Spark (Tomorrow, Dec 19) — $128 Million in Gamma expires tomorrow (21% of whole). That is the ‘Appetizer.’ It removes the speedy suppression pinning us under $90k,” he wrote. “Watch the $90,616 flip degree. If we clear this, the intraday shackles fall off.”
However Eng is clearly extra targeted on the week after. “Stage 2: The Floodgate (Subsequent Friday, Dec 26) — $287 Million in Gamma expires subsequent week,” he continued. “A staggering 46.2% of all seller gamma publicity sits on this single date… Sellers have a quarter-billion-dollar incentive to maintain volatility crushed and worth pinned close to $85k-$90k by way of Christmas to reap this premium.”
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The declare, mainly: pre-Dec. 26 is “thick mud,” post-Dec. 26 is the tape immediately respiratory once more. “While you mix these two dates, $415,000,000 of gamma — two-thirds of all the market construction — evaporates within the subsequent 8 days,” Eng wrote. “Earlier than Dec 26: The market is combating by way of thick mud… After Dec 26: The mud dries up. The suppression mechanism is gone. The Energy Legislation gravity ($118k) takes over with out the seller counter-flow.”
He additionally tossed out a provocative ratio that’s been circulating in derivatives circles all yr: seller mechanics versus ETF demand. “Vendor Gamma forces are at the moment ~13x stronger than ETF Flows,” he wrote. “Vendor ~$507.6M, ETF ~$38M. This is the reason the market is obeying the technical gamma ranges ($85k/$90k) and ignoring the ETF quantity.”
Vendor Gamma forces are at the moment ~13x stronger than ETF Flows
Vendor ~$507.6M
ETF ~$38MThis is the reason the market is obeying the technical gamma ranges ($85k/$90k) and ignoring the ETF quantity.
— David 🇺🇸 (@david_eng_mba) December 18, 2025
And when critics within the replies questioned whether or not “$287M” is even significant, Eng clarified what the determine is — and what it isn’t. “The $287M determine refers to seller gamma publicity (GEX), not whole choices measurement,” he wrote. “GEX measures how a lot spot Bitcoin sellers may have to purchase or promote to remain delta-neutral as worth strikes. It displays hedging stress, not notional worth.”
So the tradeable implication of Eng’s thesis is simple: count on the pinning video games into Christmas, then watch whether or not a post-expiry regime shift really reveals up in realized volatility — and in worth’s capability to cease bouncing off the identical ranges prefer it’s hitting invisible glass.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,953.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
