How Prospect Theory Explains Investor Panic and Losses

Calling Bitcoin a rip-off displays investor psychology, not fundamentals, with prospect principle explaining panic promoting after sharp drops.

Bitcoin (BTC) critics have returned to a well-recognized chorus, calling the asset a rip-off because it struggles to return to the five-figure stage it final loved in mid-November.

Nevertheless, crypto commentator Shanaka Anslem Perera has reframed the argument as a psychological response fairly than a monetary one, tying panic promoting to Nobel Prize–profitable prospect principle.

The Psychology Behind the “Rip-off” Label

In a November 17 submit on X, Perera argued that steep corrections usually push retail buyers to seek for explanations that match emotional ache. Prospect principle, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and awarded the Nobel Prize in 2002, holds that losses really feel roughly twice as painful as good points really feel rewarding. And when Bitcoin, for instance, drops 30% to 40% after euphoric shopping for, labeling it a rip-off turns into an emotional outlet.

“You want an evidence that matches the depth of that ache,” wrote Perera. “’Rip-off’ matches completely.”

The analyst cited information claiming that round 70% of retail merchants who purchase throughout rallies promote at a loss inside a yr, whereas long-term holders who stored Bitcoin for 4 years or extra have traditionally averted losses even when shopping for at cycle peaks.

“Each ‘rip-off’ name is a wealth switch receipt,” he claimed.

He additionally pointed to shrinking drawdowns throughout cycles, from greater than 90% in 2011 to about 50–60% within the present one, as proof that volatility has been easing with maturity.

Perera’s assertions discovered some help among the many on-line crypto neighborhood, with consumer Gary Krug stating that “Calling Bitcoin a rip-off is often a response to emotional whiplash, not evaluation.” He additionally added that markets punish impatience earlier than they reward conviction.

One other account, Bitcoinfinity, questioned why buyers battle to construct positions slowly, to which Perera replied that people naturally chase fast good points. The important thing takeaway, in keeping with the market observer, is that surviving Bitcoin’s cycles requires an prolonged time horizon, the place merchants shift from in search of fast good points to disciplined accumulation.

You may additionally like:

Market Pressure and a Conflict of Narratives

The “Bitcoin is a rip-off” framing has landed at a time the asset is coming into one in all its longest “excessive concern” readings, in keeping with market trackers, giving critics recent ammunition whereas reinforcing the psychological argument raised by supporters. Just lately, outstanding economist Steve Hanke claimed the asset has “zero elementary worth,” framing the present downturn as proof of a failing system.

The flagship cryptocurrency has fallen almost 31% from its all-time excessive and briefly dipped close to $85,000 earlier this week earlier than rebounding towards $88,000, solely to slide again to round $87,000 earlier as we speak. In line with veteran analyst PlanB, promoting stress is split between long-term holders nonetheless shaken by 2021, technical merchants watching momentum indicators, and cycle-focused buyers anticipating additional draw back.

On the opposite aspect are consumers centered on fundamentals and institutional adoption, creating what he described as a stalemate till sellers exhaust themselves. That tug-of-war has stored Bitcoin lagging conventional property within the one-year window, with information shared by Perera exhibiting the digital asset with an ROI of -15% in comparison with Gold’s +65% and the S&P 500’s +14%.

Nevertheless, over longer durations, BTC has considerably outperformed the 2, beginning at +422% ROI within the final three years towards gold’s +141% and SPX’s +49%. Since its invention, BTC has achieved a return of greater than 2 million % whereas its conventional counterparts have respectively solely managed +167% and +447% in that point.