Harvard Economist Admits $100 BTC Prediction Fail, Blames Regulation and Underground Economy

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff has admitted that his notorious 2018 prediction, that Bitcoin (BTC) was extra prone to be value $100 than $100,000 in ten years, was spectacularly improper.

Writing on X, Rogoff acknowledged that he underestimated the OG cryptocurrency’s resilience, citing “wise regulation by no means arriving,” its position within the world underground financial system, and other people in authority themselves holding crypto regardless of conflicts of curiosity.

From $100 Name to $124K Actuality

The admission comes simply days after Bitcoin set a brand new all-time excessive value above $124,000 on August 14, flipping Google’s market capitalization within the course of. Rogoff’s climbdown has rekindled debate between critics and supporters alike over the gulf between academia and the real-world trajectory of digital property.

Again in January 2018, the previous IMF chief economist told CNBC’s Squawk Field:

“I feel Bitcoin will probably be value a tiny fraction of what it’s now if we’re headed out 10 years from now,” the Harvard professor mentioned. “I might see $100 as being much more possible than $100,000 ten years from now.”

He claimed that the asset’s “precise makes use of as a transaction car” have been negligible outdoors of cash laundering and tax evasion. He additionally insisted that regulation would ultimately crush the cryptocurrency’s worth. On the time, BTC was buying and selling round $11,200 and was nonetheless reeling after dumping from its December 2017 peak close to $19,000.

Now, in 2025, with Bitcoin effectively above the $100,000 mark Rogoff had insisted the asset would by no means attain, his prediction is being ridiculed throughout social media.

Analyst Bit Paine in contrast his mistake to a marine biologist mistaking a blue whale for weighing 200 kilos. Bitcoin proponent Robert Breedlove additionally got here in scorching, dismissing the professor outright, saying he by no means cared for his opinion then and nonetheless doesn’t now.

Nonetheless, others, like Columbia lecturer Omid Malekan, argued Rogoff’s misstep was a mirrored image of the broader “innovator’s dilemma” in academia, the place reputational danger, institutional bias, and the dearth of technical background might go away many economists unsuited to know the significance of Bitcoin.

Austin Campbell, a former JPMorgan government, went additional in a thread the identical day, calling Rogoff “the only worst located particular person in your entire world to know the worth of Bitcoin,” citing his privileged entry to steady establishments and the dollar-based system.

In the meantime, economist Jan Wüstenfeld highlighted that Bitcoin’s attraction stems not from tax evasion as Rogoff had insinuated, however from systemic inflation, financial growth, and rising world debt hundreds.

Market Outlook

Bitcoin’s value has retreated since final week’s all-time excessive, slipping 7.3% over the previous seven days to commerce at $112,639 as of August 20.

The decline follows profit-taking after its report run, although the asset stays up 86% year-on-year. Within the final 24 hours, BTC dipped 2.1% inside a variety of $112,500 to $115,000, with short-term weak spot contrasting its broader bullish trajectory.