Traditionally, bitcoin’s worth peaks roughly 20 months after a Bitcoin halving. The final Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, which suggests we might see a cycle high by December of this yr.
The chances of this are more and more doubtless as Fed Chair Powell reduce charges by 25 bps right this moment, giving the roughly $7.4 trillion sitting in money market funds a cause to return off the sidelines and transfer right into a hard asset like bitcoin, particularly now that it’s simpler to acquire publicity to bitcoin through spot bitcoin ETFs and proxies like bitcoin treasury companies.
Powell additionally signaled right this moment that two more rate cuts could be on the way before the year is out, which might solely additional cut back returns in cash market funds, doubtlessly pushing buyers into arduous property like bitcoin and gold in addition to riskier property like tech and AI-related shares.
This might catalyze the ultimate leg of a “melt-up” similar to what we noticed with tech shares on the finish of 1999 earlier than the dot com bubble burst.
Additionally, very like the likes of Henrik Zeberg and David Hunter, I imagine the stage is being set for the ultimate parabolic leg of a bull run that started in late 2022.
Utilizing a standard monetary index as a reference level, Zeberg sees the S&P 500 exceeding 7,000 earlier than the yr is out, whereas Hunter sees it rising to eight,000 (or higher) throughout the identical time-frame.
What’s extra, we could also be witnessing the breakdown of a 14-year help stage for the US greenback, in response to Macro Strategist Octavio (Tavi) Costa, which suggests we might see a markedly weaker greenback within the coming months, one thing else that will help the bull case for arduous and danger property.
What Occurs Come 2026?
Each Zeberg and Hunter imagine that, as of early subsequent yr, we’ll see the biggest bust throughout all markets that we’ve seen since October 1929, when monetary markets within the US collapsed, spurring the onset of the Nice Despair.
Zeberg’s rationale for this consists of the true financial system grinding to a halt, partially evidenced by the quantity of properties available on the market.
Hunter believes that we’re on the finish of a half century lengthy secular debt-fueled cycle that can finish with a leverage unwind in contrast to something we’ve seen in fashionable historical past, as per what he shared on Coin Stories.
Different indicators like mortgage cost delinquencies additionally level to the concept the true financial system is screeching to a halt, which can inevitably affect the monetary financial system.
The Bitcoin Downturn Isn’t Assured, however It’s Doubtless
Even when we aren’t headed in direction of a world macro bust, bitcoin’s worth will take successful in 2026 if historical past repeats itself.
That’s, bitcoin’s worth dropped from virtually $69,000 on the finish of 2021 to roughly $15,500 by the tip of 2022 and from virtually $20,000 on the finish of 2017 to only over $3,000 on the finish of 2018.
In each instances, bitcoin’s worth both tapped or dipped under its 200 Week Commonplace Shifting Common (SMA), the sunshine blue line on the charts under.
Presently, bitcoin’s 200 Week SMA is sitting at about $52,000. If we see a parabolic rise in bitcoin’s worth within the coming months, it might rise as excessive as $65,000, earlier than bitcoin’s worth drops to such a worth level or decrease a while in 2026.
If we do see the kind of bust that Zeberg and Hunter are forecasting, bitcoin’s worth might additionally drop properly under that threshold.
With all of that mentioned, nobody is aware of what the long run holds, and please don’t interpret something on this article as monetary recommendation.
On the identical time, you might need to take into account that whereas historical past doesn’t essentially repeat itself, it typically rhymes.
