If ETH continues to climb, the next major resistance is expected at $2,450, said one analyst.
On March 16, Ethereum (ETH) climbed to almost $2,300 for the first time since early February, posting an 8% gain in 24 hours.
This happened even as large holders kept offloading hundreds of millions of dollars worth of the token, as a broader crypto rally appeared to defy ongoing geopolitical tensions that have pulled traditional markets apart.
Whales Sell Into the Rally
Despite the uptick, there hasn’t been the kind of investor confidence that usually comes before a sustained breakout. Data shared by analyst Wise Crypto showed that in the last seven days, big ETH holders sold 380,000 ETH worth about $800 million. They suggested that a lot of those sellers were treating the short-term price spikes as a chance to get out, which could slow further upward movement.
Based on their analysis, Ethereum is currently trading between $1,917 and $2,338, which are its support and resistance levels, respectively. Wise Crypto projected that if the price goes below the lower boundary, ETH could drop to just above $1,700. However, if the asset stays above resistance for a while, it could test levels close to $2,450.
The analyst also noted that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Long/Short Difference for ETH is very negative, which means that long-term holders may be losing money while short-term traders are making money. The MVRV ratio compares the current price of ETH to the average price at which all coins last moved, giving a rough idea of how much unrealized profit or loss there is among holders.
When short-term holders make most of the money, like they seem to be doing right now, selling pressure usually follows quickly.
Even with the mixed signals, ETH was up 13% over seven days at the time of this writing, moving well above $2,200. The jump happened during a larger rise in the crypto market, which also, for a short period, pushed Bitcoin (BTC) above $74,000, to hit its highest level in about six weeks, following a U.S. attack on Iran’s Kharg Island, which exports 90% of the country’s oil shipments.
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Futures Markets Dominate ETH Trading
Elsewhere, data from analyst Darkfost shows that even though ETH has recovered in the spot market, derivatives activity points to short-term trading still dominating the asset’s market structure.
The on-chain technician reported on Sunday that the volume of Ethereum futures trading on Binance is now more than six times greater than the volume of spot trading, with the ratio between them falling to its lowest level since the tail end of the 2023 bear market.
When futures trading is much more active than spot trading, it usually means that the market is driven by leveraged positions instead of steady accumulation.
“This reflects genuine weakness in Ethereum’s spot market at the moment,” Darkfost wrote. “It is possible that sales from the Ethereum Foundation or even Vitalik Buterin are contributing to investor caution.”
Still, not everyone thinks that ETH will stay in a range, as, according to crypto commentator Ash Crypto, a daily close above $2,400 could lead to a move toward $2,800.
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