Legendary cyberphunk Nick Szabo and Ryan Watkins, co-founder of Syncracy Capital, laid out opposing frameworks for understanding Ethereum’s rally and its valuation mechanics in a pair of X posts — and collectively they learn like a point-counterpoint on what truly drives Layer-1 costs.
Ethereum Worth Has Nothing to Do With Utility
Szabo’s core claim is stark: “a basic drawback with ETH valuation is that ethereum’s major makes use of instances are largely exterior to ETH’s market worth.” In his view, Ethereum “might be very helpful,” its functions “can garner nice income,” and but “ETH can nonetheless be low value — or vice versa — there’s little hyperlink between them.”
He contrasts this with Bitcoin, whose “major use case is as a retailer of worth, which is strongly linked to its value,” including that “Bitcoin’s fundamental design is way extra suited to this use case, so ETH can’t simply mimic it, it has to depend on different use instances poorly linked to its value.” For Szabo, the crux is structural: utility on Ethereum doesn’t reliably translate into worth seize by ETH, whereas Bitcoin’s objective and value are entwined by design.
Szabo’s assertion, who returned to X in late September 2025 after a five-year absence, got here in response to a by Watkins. The researcher comes on the market from the other angle, arguing that traders routinely over-engineer Layer-1 valuation fashions whereas value and narrative do the heavy lifting. “Again and again I see individuals overthink L1 valuations,” he wrote, framing the final leg of ETH power as a story pivot moderately than a spreadsheet breakthrough.
Why Has ETH Worth Tripled Since April?
“The one distinction between $1400 ETH and $5000 ETH was Bitmine.” In April, he says, “Ethereum was a dying platform.” At the moment, “it’s the stablecoin chain and the following ‘Bitcoin-like’ alternative for establishments.” The lesson he attracts is blunt: “Worth leads narratives so they are saying.”
Crucially, Watkins is just not insisting these narratives are justified — he’s highlighting the vacuum they fill. “The purpose right here isn’t about whether or not any of that is justified. The purpose is that the absence of agreed upon valuation methodologies creates a void that solely narratives and relative frameworks can fill.”
He floats competing bull instances not as convictions however as open hypotheses: “Is the ETH bull case that it turns into a take charge on international GDP? What about it turning into ‘programmable Bitcoin’ which intrinsically can’t be valued? How about each? The reality is nobody is aware of.”
That uncertainty, he says, pushes markets towards anchoring on easy comparisons and flows: “So what occurs when the market as an alternative anchors to relative worth and narratives? Properly BTC is $2 trillion. So who’s to say ETH shouldn’t be 50% of that? It provides a superset of Bitcoin’s performance proper? ETH is $500B. Why shouldn’t SOL be 100% or extra of that? It’s the superior product with better traction throughout virtually each financial metric.”
He dismisses these as “goofy” workouts, however helpful for navigation: “we will theorize all we wish, or navigate the setting in entrance of us.” Till fundamentals reassert, “don’t overthink it.” In his closing line, he defines the sting plainly: “There’s an unlimited aggressive benefit for belongings which have penetrated mainstream consciousness and persevered over time. It’s a recreation of flows and narratives till the get together stops.”
Each views might be true without delay. Markets could proceed to cost ETH primarily by means of narratives and relative worth whereas the query Szabo poses — whether or not Ethereum’s design can ever hard-wire a sturdy hyperlink between community utility and token worth — stays unanswered. For now, the talk itself is the sign: ETH is transferring by means of a cycle the place perceptions of objective, not simply measurable cash-flow analogs, set the tone.
At press time, ETH traded at $4,701.92.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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