Can Quantum Computing Break Bitcoin? Project Eleven Puts It to the Test

Undertaking Eleven, a quantum computing analysis group, has introduced the Q-Day Prize – a world problem providing 1 Bitcoin to the primary workforce or particular person who can use Shor’s algorithm on a quantum laptop to interrupt a part of an elliptic curve cryptographic (ECC) key.

The competitors started on April 16, 2025, and can run till April 5, 2026. The primary goal is to evaluate the real-world danger that quantum computing poses to Bitcoin’s cryptographic safety. The problem particularly targets the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA).

International Quantum Problem

In line with Undertaking Eleven’s tweet, greater than 10 million Bitcoin addresses have uncovered public keys, probably placing an estimated 6.2 million BTC, price roughly $500 billion, in danger if quantum computing capabilities proceed to advance. The Q-Day Prize goals to maneuver the dialogue round quantum threats past theoretical hypothesis by encouraging a sensible demonstration of vulnerability.

Members should run Shor’s algorithm solely on a quantum laptop, with out help from classical computing strategies. Even breaking a couple of bits of a Bitcoin key would qualify as a sound proof-of-concept and will point out that full key restoration is believable with future technological enhancements. Undertaking Eleven said that no real-world ECC key has ever been cracked to this point.

The initiative comes amid notable progress within the quantum computing sector. Google’s ‘Willow’ chip, for instance, just lately performed a computation in 5 minutes that might take conventional supercomputers an estimated 10 septillion years.

Different corporations, together with IBM, Amazon, and Microsoft, have additionally made developments in quantum {hardware}, and entry to quantum processors is more and more obtainable by way of cloud providers. PsiQuantum, one other main participant within the discipline, raised $750 million in early 2025, citing developments in photonic chip design and enhancements to quantum algorithms akin to Shor’s.

Whereas trade specialists don’t contemplate the quantum menace to Bitcoin to be imminent, Undertaking Eleven’s initiative seeks to quantify that danger by open experimentation.

The Nice Quantum Debate

The quantum computing debate isn’t new. Earlier this 12 months, CryptoQuant identified it as an rising danger, particularly in areas like mining and personal key safety. The talk reignited after a November NIST report warned that sure algorithms susceptible to quantum assaults might be phased out inside 5 years.

Whereas some voices, akin to ‘Bitcoin Isaiah’ on X, advocate for pressing preparation, others like Blockstream CEO Adam Again preserve that Bitcoin’s encryption ought to maintain agency till round 2035.