Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Reveals Why Most Crypto Treasury Firms Should Actually Trade at a Discount

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan believes that bigger DATs achieve main benefits in debt markets, lending capability, derivatives entry, and M&A alternatives.

Bitwise Chief Funding Officer Matt Hougan outlined a valuation framework for digital asset treasury corporations (DATs) and mentioned that evaluation of the sector usually misunderstands how these corporations ought to be priced relative to the belongings they maintain.

In a sequence of posts, Hougan mentioned the core query for valuing any DAT is to contemplate what the corporate can be value if it had a hard and fast lifespan.

Illiquidity, Bills, and Threat

He explained {that a} Bitcoin-focused DAT asserting a same-day shutdown and distribution of its holdings would commerce precisely on the worth of its bitcoin, or an mNAV of 1.0, whereas extending the liquidation timeline to at least one 12 months introduces circumstances that may push valuations above or under the underlying asset worth.

Hougan mentioned three primary components justify a reduction to mNAV: illiquidity, bills, and danger. Illiquidity displays the cheaper price traders would pay as we speak for Bitcoin they’d obtain in a 12 months, and Hougan means that the low cost could possibly be 5-10%. Bills instantly cut back investor worth, and a DAT holding $100 value of BTC per share however paying executives $10 per share per 12 months would warrant a corresponding 10% low cost. Threat, outlined as the opportunity of operational errors or different failures, should even be factored into pricing.

On the opposite facet, the Bitwise exec mentioned DATs could commerce at a premium provided that they’re rising their crypto-per-share, and famous that within the US, that is the only real purpose for such a premium. He recognized 4 methods DATs use to perform this: issuing USD-denominated debt to purchase crypto, lending out crypto to earn curiosity, utilizing derivatives corresponding to writing name choices to generate extra revenue, and buying crypto at a reduction.

Discounted acquisitions can happen by buying locked belongings from foundations in search of liquidity, buying one other DAT buying and selling under its asset worth, repurchasing its personal discounted shares, or shopping for a cash-flow-generating enterprise and allocating the proceeds to crypto.

“Excessive Hurdle”

Hougan added that low cost components are usually sure whereas premium-enabling components are usually unsure. This finally ends up creating what he described as a excessive hurdle for many DATs. Because of this, he mentioned most corporations will commerce at a reduction, with solely a restricted variety of robust performers buying and selling at a premium. Utilizing the instance of a Bitcoin DAT scheduled to liquidate in 12 months, he mentioned honest worth could be estimated by calculating bills, including a danger low cost, and offsetting these with expectations for will increase in bitcoin-per-share.

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Though DATs would not have fastened lifespans in follow, the exec mentioned this extends quite than modifications the mannequin, as a result of bills and dangers compound over time, whereas corporations that may develop crypto-per-share constantly could develop into extremely beneficial.

He additionally mentioned bigger DATs have structural benefits, together with simpler entry to debt markets, bigger swimming pools of crypto for lending, deeper choices markets, and broader alternatives for mergers, acquisitions, or different discounted offers. Whereas DATs have largely moved in tandem over the previous six months, Hougan expects higher divergence forward, with a small variety of corporations executing nicely sufficient to commerce at a premium and plenty of others buying and selling at a reduction.

In the meantime, DAT corporations have invested at the least $42.7 billion into crypto acquisitions in 2025, in line with CoinGecko’s current report. It was found that $22.6 billion was deployed within the third quarter alone, which makes it the strongest quarter on report for accumulation. Altcoin-focused DAT corporations accounted for $10.8 billion, or 47.8%, of Q3 spending, however Bitcoin-focused corporations continued to dominate total exercise.

For the reason that begin of 2025, Bitcoin DAT corporations have bought greater than $30 billion in BTC, which represented 70.3% of complete acquisitions. Ethereum counterparts adopted with $7.9 billion in purchases, most of it in August, whereas SOL, BNB, WLFI, and different belongings made up 11.2% of annual spending.