ARK believes that solely two to 3 Layer 1 platforms could seize most sensible contract market worth by 2030.
ARK Make investments estimated in its “Huge Concepts 2026” report that the marketplace for sensible contract networks and pure-play digital currencies may attain $28 trillion in whole market worth by 2030. The agency mentioned these digital belongings, that are used as shops of worth, mediums of trade, and items of account on public blockchains, may develop at an annual development fee of about 61% by the top of the last decade.
ARK projected that Bitcoin may account for roughly 70% of the general market, whereas the rest is anticipated to be dominated by sensible contract networks comparable to Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).
Bitcoin Leads ARK’s 2030 Outlook
Below ARK’s forecast, BTC’s market capitalization may rise at a compound annual development fee (CAGR) of round 63% over the subsequent few years, rising from practically $2 trillion to about $16 trillion by 2030.
The funding administration agency estimated that the market capitalization of sensible contract platforms may develop at a 54% annual fee to roughly $6 trillion by 2030, which is anticipated to be supported by annualized income of about $192 billion at a mean take fee of 0.75%. ARK mentioned two to 3 Layer 1 platforms may take most of that market.
In the meantime, the US Bitcoin ETFs and public firms held 12% of the entire bitcoin provide in 2025, up from 8.7% beforehand. The agency discovered that the ETF balances rose 19.7% throughout the 12 months, rising from about 1.12 million BTC to virtually 1.3 million BTC.
Public firm BTC holdings additionally expanded, after climbing 73% from round 598,000 BTC to roughly 1.09 million BTC.
ARK additionally noticed that BTC’s risk-adjusted returns surpassed these of most different large-cap cryptocurrencies and indexes for many of 2025. It mentioned bitcoin’s common yearly Sharpe Ratio exceeded that of ETH and SOL, and the common of the opposite 9 parts within the CoinDesk 10 Index because the newest cycle low in November 2022, the beginning of 2024, and the start of 2025.
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It added that Bitcoin has develop into much less unstable because it grows right into a safe-haven function.
Solely a Few Cash Will Survive?
Moreover, Layer 1 networks have been additionally discovered to be evolving from revenue-generating platforms into financial belongings. Making use of a high-growth income a number of of 50x to Ethereum’s community income, ARK estimated that greater than 90% of Ethereum’s market worth is attributed to its function as a financial asset. However, ARK acknowledged that Solana generated $1.4 billion in income, which implies that round 90% of its valuation is pushed by community utility.
The agency added that only some digital belongings will retain financial properties and function liquid shops of worth based mostly on its analysis.
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