Dealer Plan C not too long ago surfaced a chart indicating a production-cost mannequin putting Bitcoin’s marginal mining expense at roughly $67,000, with historic worth motion exhibiting repeated bounces off that crimson line.
He added that “commodities not often commerce under their price of manufacturing.” The hook is clear, the logic is intuitive, however the actuality beneath Bitcoin’s newest volatility is messier and extra instructive than any single line can seize.
Bitcoin printed an intraday low near $60,000 on Feb. 6 earlier than clawing again to struggle across the $70,000 stage as of press time, slicing by way of the extensively watched $63,000 threshold that had anchored latest bottom-calling narratives.
Nonetheless, the questions of whether or not the market is transitioning from compelled deleveraging into real spot-led worth discovery and what confluence of alerts would affirm that shift remained.
4 zones that matter
Moderately than looking for a single magic quantity, analysts are combining a number of frameworks into a requirement ladder. Every rung represents a unique valuation anchor, and collectively they map the place shopping for stress may really materialize.
Zone A ranges from $70,600 to $66,900. Glassnode identifies this as a dense cost-basis cluster utilizing its UTXO Realized Worth Distribution mannequin, indicating a excessive focus of cash final moved on this worth vary.
After Bitcoin misplaced its True Market Imply round $80,200, this cluster grew to become the closest on-chain absorption zone.
Glassnode cautions that spot volumes stay structurally weak, that means any reduction rally dangers being corrective noise until actual spot demand returns.
The implication: bounces off this zone, pushed purely by leverage flush, will not stick.
Zone B facilities on $63,000 and is critical from a behavioral relatively than an on-chain perspective.
Galaxy Digital’s analysis arm notes {that a} 50% drawdown from Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time excessive close to $126,296 lands nearly precisely at $63,000, forming a clear, round-trip threshold that mirrors prior bear-market capitulation factors.
The sweep under $63,000 might be learn two methods: both help broke, or the market executed a traditional capitulation probe earlier than discovering real demand.
Which interpretation proves right is determined by what occurs subsequent with flows and derivatives.
Zone C spans $58,000 to $56,000, the place two main cycle-bottom anchors converge.
Galaxy explicitly identifies the 200-week shifting common at roughly $58,000 and the Realized Worth close to $56,000 as ranges which have traditionally marked sturdy cycle flooring.
Glassnode independently locations Realized Worth at roughly $55,800. Each frameworks agree: if the present rebound fails and BTC drifts decrease, that is the magnet zone the place long-term capital has historically re-engaged.
Zone D introduces production-cost fashions, and that is the place Plan C’s chart lives, however solely as one estimate amongst a number of.
Different fashions place the common manufacturing price round $87,000, implying that spot has been buying and selling materially under that estimate and putting miners under stress.
In the meantime, the difficulty-per-issuance mannequin Plan C amplified pegs the price proxy within the excessive $60,000s. The nuance issues: “commodities do not commerce under price” is directionally helpful however not a tough flooring for Bitcoin.
Miners can function at a loss within the quick time period by promoting treasuries, deploying hedges, or just hashing by way of the ache till the issue adjusts downward and lowers marginal price.
Manufacturing price features much less as assured help and extra as a stress gauge that catalyzes provide responses, reminiscent of miner capitulation or treasury liquidation, earlier than equilibrium resets.
What rebound affirmation really appears like
Declaring an area backside calls for greater than holding a stage. One of the best alerts span derivatives, on-chain stress, institutional flows, and mining dynamics.
Derivatives markets are screaming worry. Deribit information present a 25-delta risk-reversal skew of approximately -13%, an inverted implied-volatility time period construction, and damaging funding charges. These are traditional protection-bid situations.
A rebound positive factors credibility when skew backs off from excessive negatives, IV normalizes, and funding flips sustainably optimistic.
On-chain realized losses stay elevated. Glassnode reviews the seven-day shifting common above $1.26 billion per day, in line with compelled deleveraging.
A bullish shift would see realized losses peak and start to say no whereas worth stabilizes inside the $66,900-$70,600 vary, indicating vendor exhaustion relatively than a short lived pause.
Institutional flows are a headwind. Farside Investors’ information reveals nearly $690 million in monthly net outflows as of Feb. 5, including to the $1.6 billion in internet outflows registered in January.
Stream reversals needn’t flip dramatically optimistic, as even deceleration to flat would matter in a thin-liquidity atmosphere the place allocators drove a lot of the prior rally.
Mining stress is reaching an inflection. TheMinerMag famous that the hash worth fell below $32 per petahash per second, with issue projected to drop by roughly 13.37% on the subsequent adjustment.
That reduction may stabilize hashrate and ease miner promote stress, however provided that the value holds lengthy sufficient for the adjustment to take impact.
| Sign bucket | Metric | Newest studying / regime (as of press time) | Bullish affirmation (what change you want) | Bearish continuation (what to worry) | Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derivatives | 25D danger reversal (skew) | Brief-dated skew as little as ~-13% (places bid / draw back safety in demand) | Skew lifts towards 0 (much less demand for draw back hedges) and stays there for a number of classes | Skew stays deeply damaging (continued demand for defense) | Deribit Insights / Block Scholes “Crypto Derivatives: Analytics Report – Week 6” (Feb 4, 2026). (Deribit Insights) |
| Derivatives | Perp funding charges | Funding under 0% / BTC funding pushed damaging (bearish positioning) | Funding turns sustainably optimistic (not only a one-day flip) | Funding stays damaging or whipsaws (fragile bounce / quick stress persists) | Deribit Insights / Block Scholes (Week 6, 2026). (Deribit Insights) |
| Volatility | IV time period construction | ATM IV time period construction inverted (near-term worry priced above longer tenors) | Construction normalizes upward-sloping as spot stabilizes and panic premium fades | Construction stays inverted (market retains pricing near-term stress) | Deribit Insights / Block Scholes (Week 6, 2026). (Deribit Insights) |
| On-chain stress | Realized losses (7D SMA) | 7D SMA > $1.26B/day (elevated compelled promoting / stress) | Realized losses peak then pattern down whereas worth holds Zone A ($66.9K–$70.6K) | Losses preserve rising into bounces (provide nonetheless hitting bid; “reduction rallies” weak) | Glassnode “The Week On-chain – Bears In Management” (Feb 4, 2026). (insights.glassnode.com) |
| Flows | US spot BTC ETF internet flows (month-to-date) | Feb MTD (Feb 2–5): -$689.2M (~-$690M) internet (561.8 – 272.0 – 544.9 – 434.1) | Outflows decelerate to flat/optimistic (even “much less unhealthy” helps in skinny liquidity) | Outflows speed up (allocator promoting overwhelms spot bid) | Farside Traders every day circulate desk (Feb 2–5, 2026). (farside.co.uk) |
| Mining | Hashprice | Hashprice fell under $32/PH/s (profitability stress) | Hashprice stabilizes/improves after issue reduction and worth holds | Hashprice falls additional (greater chance of miner promoting/treasury drawdowns) | TheMinerMag (Feb 5, 2026). (TheMinerMag) |
| Mining | Subsequent issue adjustment | Projected issue drop ~13.37% (protocol-side reduction, near-term) | Issue reduction + secure hashrate (much less capitulation; lowered compelled promoting) | Continued hashrate drop / sustained stress regardless of adjustment | TheMinerMag (Feb 5, 2026). (TheMinerMag) |
Three ahead situations
The primary potential state of affairs is the formation of an area backside. Assist ranges from $66,900 to $70,600 because the on-chain cluster absorbs provide. Derivatives normalize, flows cease bleeding, and realized losses cool.
Upside would first goal reclaiming the True Market Imply round $80,200 earlier than going through overhead provide from underwater holders.
The second state of affairs consists of a uneven drift decrease. Galaxy sees a significant chance that BTC ranges close to $70,000 earlier than testing the $56,000-$58,000 zone within the coming weeks or months.
This matches a market the place leverage has flushed, however spot demand stays absent, which is Glassnode’s central warning. Volatility persists, and reduction rallies fail to maintain themselves.
The final state of affairs is a deeper capitulation. One other leg of compelled promoting, probably triggered by continued ETF outflows or macro danger repricing, pulls BTC by way of the present zones.
Right here, $56,000- $58,000 is much less a goal and extra the extent at which long-term capital has traditionally stepped in with conviction.
The actual transition
The core narrative is whether or not Bitcoin is shifting from leverage-driven pricing again to spot-led worth discovery.
Glassnode frames the market as weak till spot participation returns, and that participation will not materialize from derivatives normalization alone. Manufacturing-cost fashions supply a helpful lens on miner economics, however they describe a supply-response mechanism relatively than a worth flooring.
The commodity comparability breaks down when issue can alter, and miners can finance operations by way of drawdowns.
ETF habits now carries macro weight. Flows are massive sufficient that capitulation more and more manifests as regime shifts in allocator sentiment relatively than simply funding fee flips on offshore exchanges.
The January outflows weren’t retail panic, however relatively institutional de-risking, and reversing that requires catalysts past technical bounces.
Bitcoin reclaimed a lot of the bottom misplaced within the washout, however turning these ranges into sustained demand is a unique course of.
The info present a ladder of zones the place demand may emerge, a guidelines of confirming alerts, and a reminder that manufacturing price is the first stress indicator relatively than a flooring.
Whether or not $60,297 marks a capitulation low or simply one other step in a deeper correction is determined by what occurs subsequent with flows, derivatives, and the willingness of spot consumers to step in amid persistent worry.
