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A thread posted late on 4 August 2025 by Weiss Crypto analyst Juan Villaverde has ignited debate a few hardly ever mentioned harbinger of Bitcoin value cycles. In a thread on X, the quantitative researcher argued that an “ignored asset class”—one he says nearly no-one screens in a crypto context—persistently pivots months earlier than Bitcoin does, providing what he calls “a sneak peek at main turning factors.” Villaverde’s proprietary back-testing suggests the lag is roughly six months, sufficient lead time, he claims, to anticipate the apex of the present bull market in late November.
How Gold’s Trendlines Map The Bitcoin Value
“Many are conscious that Bitcoin tends to follow global liquidity—with a roughly twelve-week lag,” Weiss Crypto wrote, setting the stage for the reveal. “However Juan Villaverde has quietly tracked a unique early indicator… one that may sign the place BTC is headed six months upfront.” In a follow-up publish he teased, “That little-known indicator? [ … ]. Seems, its value motion typically leads Bitcoin by a number of months—offering a sneak peek at main turning factors.”
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Villaverde’s thesis rests on an information collection stretching again to the arrival of recent crypto markets. He factors to the trough of December 2018, which, in his reconstruction, was foreshadowed by a major low within the thriller market some weeks earlier. “After analysing years of knowledge, Juan noticed a constant sample,” Weiss Crypto said, quoting the analyst to the impact that “main lows [there] are inclined to precede main lows in Bitcoin.”
The identical lead-lag cadence, Villaverde notes, flashed pink in November 2021 when Bitcoin printed its all-time excessive even because the benchmark asset he tracks refused to interrupt increased—an omen that presaged the 2022 bear market.
The mannequin is just not with out blemishes. Weiss Crypto acknowledged “one exception in recent times—throughout the Russia–Ukraine invasion—the place the Bitcoin relationship quickly inverted as a consequence of macro chaos.” But Villaverde maintains the anomaly reinforces slightly than weakens his conviction: exogenous geopolitical shocks can distort correlations, however as soon as the shock dissipates the historic rhythm reasserts itself.
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The place does that go away the market in mid-2025? “In keeping with Juan’s evaluation,” the agency wrote, “the indicator is pointing to a serious excessive in Bitcoin round late November 2025. That aligns completely along with his Crypto Timing Mannequin.” Villaverde cautions that the sign is dynamic, not deterministic. If the benchmark asset he watches “rallies above its April excessive,” it will indicate “Bitcoin may march increased into 2026.” Conversely, any decisive breakdown would “be an early warning that crypto’s bull market could also be nearing its finish after November.”
Villaverde insists the connection he has recognized is powerful as a result of it focuses on magnitude slightly than path alone. “It’s not solely the turns that matter,” he mentioned in a direct message to this outlet, “however the amplitude of these turns.” By quantifying each, he argues, the sign captures investor psychology cycling from fear to greed and back again.
At press time, BTC traded at $114,522.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
