Few people are as close to the center of the Bitcoin industry as Jack Maller. A young, tech-savvy CEO of a major Bitcoin exchange in the United States, partnered with Tether, the most profitable company in recent history, the son of Chicago traders, Jack, is plugged in. In his podcast, BLABLA, he has been ringing the bell over the past few weeks, “It’s time to turn on your DCA”.
But what does DCA even mean? An acronym for “dollar cost average,” it is an investment strategy ported into Bitcoin that has become the gold standard recommendation to Bitcoin fans across the industry. Turning on your DCA means buying bitcoin on a regular basis, regardless of the price. Why does this work? Well its quite simple actually. If you buy regardless of the price on a weekly basis for example, you will buy as much of the lower prices as you will the higher ones. In fact, bitcoin tends to spend significant portions of time in ‘consolidation’, which is another word for neither going up nor down, but rather going sideways. This is a great opportunity to accumulate sats.
Every time you buy bitcoin at a price lower than you bought before, you are lowering your ‘dollar cost average’ or rather, the average cost of your total bitcoin in dollar terms. Eventually, because of Bitcoin’s unmatched and inelastic scarcity, combined with its network-like growth, the price tends to go up, and when it goes up, it does so quickly. Most people miss the opportunity to buy at the perfect time, right before a major move up. But Bitcoiners doing DCA will already have an optimal average price, perfectly set up to profit from a large move up. As a result, you can end up with an average purchase price curve that looks something like this, right before a major bull run.
There are other profound benefits to the Bitcoin DCA strategy. Because it involves small, manageable investments over a long period of time, the amount risked at any single point in the investment journey is relatively small. Investing, for example, 10% of your disposable income a month in Bitcoin would not be a heavy burden, making bear markets not just tolerable but actually turning them into incredible investment opportunities.
Multiple exchanges have also implemented automated Bitcoin DCA features, such as Kraken, Strike, Swan, and Bull Bitcoin, which cover many countries throughout the world. The automated aspect of this strategy can not be overstated. Compared to the high stress, intense cognitive load of a professional trader, automated Bitcoin DCA is a walk in the park, and it yields comparable results!
Books like The Art of Execution cover long-term studies done on professional traders on Wall Street, demonstrating that most lose money, and of those that do earn money, lose for 10 years straight before becoming good enough to make it. The human capital required to become a good trader is not cheap, but Bitcoin DCA is set it and forget it; you can go do something else with your life while your Bitcoin stack grows.
You can calculate the long-term value of the Bitcoin DCA strategy with a variety of tools online, such as this BM Pro calculator which lets you see what would have happened if you had started buying say $100 of Bitcoin every two weeks, back in 2017. Needless to say, the results are incredible.
In recent years, Gold has started performing very well with DCA as well, but those calculations are mostly dwarfed by its meteoric rise in 2025. Historically, Gold has much longer cycles than Bitcoin, and can easily stay still for many years after a big move, being the giant that it is. Whereas Bitcoin has a lot more upside overall and its cycles are much shorter, arguably leading to better returns if played right.
Now Is The Time To Start Your DCA
Why now, you might ask? Isn’t it always good to have your Bitcoin DCA on? Well, there’s a great question, and implicit in Jack Maller’s quote, the answer is no. Technically, you can start your DCA at the top of a bull market and end up with a great average down purchase price by the time the next bull market takes off. But you certainly would be better off not buying the top.
The following is not investment advice and does not represent the opinion of Bitcoin Magazine or BTC Inc. They are the opinions of the author alone.
The problem, of course, is that no one knows where the top of the market is; if they did, they’d be rich! Their strategy would get discovered, replicated by others, removing its competitive advantage over time. That’s the nature of markets; secret knowledge only works while it is secret. When it becomes public, the rest of the market adapts.
Since Bitcoin DCA does not attempt to price the top, it avoids the issue entirely. But many people turn off DCA when they feel the market is nearing a top, and tops historically only happen after crossing the previous all-time high price from a previous cycle. So, despite the math, some do turn off their DCA, only to turn it back on when a clear bear market has begun.
So is Bitcoin in a bear market? Sort of. The price is down 50%From the top, but it also dropped very quickly, suggesting a reaction to larger macro events, which in turn means that most of the pain is likely behind us. There’s also a variety of technical price indicators that are flashing green, suggesting we are far closer to the bottom than we are to the top. In other words, it is time to get in.
Weekly RSI, a momentum indicator, is in oversold territory historically for Bitcoin. You can go back a decade in Bitcoin, and every time the weekly RSI reaches levels this low, it signals a bottom. The Mayer multiple, which compares Bitcoin to the 200-day moving average, is also in the buy zone territory.
The fear and greed index for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market has been at extreme fear for a while now, and you know what they say. If there’s blood on the streets, it’s time to buy.
There’s also a historical analysis that looks at percentage-based corrections in Bitcoin from the top of the market to the bottom. These corrections tend to be smaller over time, with the last bear market drawdown going as far down as 77%. We are currently at about 51% correction, if we were to go down 70%, it would mean we are already more than half way down. So closer to the bottom than we are to the top.
Notice we are already halfway through the Bitcoin halving cycle as well, with the next halving expected in early 2028. The last halving was anticipated with bitcoin making all-time highs near the halving, as the metric has become widely known, for the same reasons, we might see an anticipation of the halving again this cycle. Historically speaking, we are not likely to see a correction deeper than 70% from the top, an extreme scenario that would push Bitcoin to $40,000 temporarily.
Dips of the sort are also less likely given the institutional adoption of Bitcoin, which has massively expanded the liquidity of this market. If we did go that far down, those prepared to buy would find an incredible opportunity, but it would be speculation and a trading mindset to try to catch the absolute bottom, hence why low-risk, consistent DCA is so great.
Finally, we have the death cross and colden cross combo. Pitting off the 50-day moving average versus the 200-day moving average leads to a fairly predictable dynamic. Markets sell before the 50-day crosses below the 200-day. And they pump before the 50-day crosses above the 200-day. Bitcoin has now crossed above the 50 day moving average, if it can stay there or continue to consolidate around the $70,000 mark, it will be very well positioned for a run up deeper into 2026 as the golden cross occurs, probably signaling the beginning of a new bull market.
Macro Economic Trends
AI stonks have been soaking up a lot of liquidity and investment this cycle, with roughly a trillion dollars invested in AI infrastructure in the past handful of years. The market is broadly bullish on AI continuing its disruption path. I don’t think it takes a genius to say that an “AI fear and greed index” would be way over on the greed side right now. It may be that AI has brought us to a new paradigm of only up for AI stocks and tech, but that kind of thinking is usually a sell sign. If there is some sort of event in the next year or two akin to the dot-com crash that leads to a serious AI correction, we may see speculative and investment capital look for other options beyond AI, bringing liquidity back to Bitcoin. Though it is arguably still early to call this.
Meanwhile, U.S. debt yield, or the interest on the debt of the U.S. Government, has stalled out with signs from the FED that lower rates are coming. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve back in January, and his confirmation — while stuck in the Senate — is likely to go through soon, signaling a looser monetary policy, aligned with Trump’s broader economic strategy, which favours lower interest rates and more money printing, coupled with aggressive growth and deregulation.
The Fed funds’ effective fund rate is also trending down, signaling cheaper money coming into the market, likely in part due to more money printing by the Fed, since U.S. bonds are not particularly attractive to foreign investors during this time of geopolitical tension.
Fundamental Analysis
As far as fundamental trends or changes to Bitcoin, the only question that has emerged is in relation to quantum computing and whether it can break Bitcoin’s cryptography. This fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), while new to many investors, is not new to Bitcoin technologists. Broad consensus within the Bitcoin industry remains that quantum computing advancements remain mostly hype and have a long way to go before they become a threat to Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin core developers have been actively discussing long-term solutions to quantum for at least a couple of years now, though as far back as the Satoshi era. Formal improvement proposals have already been drafted, and software is well on its way to reach maturity, should it be needed to deal with a quantum threat. So overall, investors who sold due to quantum FUD might find themselves on the wrong side of the trade.
The Barrier To Entry Into Bitcoin
So yes, most signs suggest that it is time to turn on your Bitcoin DCA. And the good news is, there are only a couple of things people need to really understand about Bitcoin to benefit from it. Why is its supply limited, and how does it remain limited? And how to protect it long term via good self-custody. These essential skills in Bitcoin are not trivial to acquire; they do demand some study and interest from investors, but they are simple hobbies compared to the knowledge requirements of becoming a professional trader or investor who can survive the volatility and unpredictability of the market.
In terms of understanding Bitcoin’s economics, Bitcoin Magazine has a premium selection of books on the topic, any of which is likely to give you the fundamentals and much more in an eloquent and enjoyable way. And when it comes to self-custody, Bitcoin Magazine also has a fresh review of excellent tools, written by yours truly, for the year 2026.
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