A crypto market analyst has shared a new technical analysis, outlining reasons why the Bitcoin price has not yet reached a cycle bottom. Using a charting framework called the Bear Bands alongside the Halving Cycles Theory, the analyst argues that while a short-term bounce is currently playing out, the broader bear market still has significant time and more downsides ahead before reaching a final price floor.
Why The Bitcoin Price Has Not Hit A Bottom Yet
According to market expert Crypto Con on X, the recent bounce that saw Bitcoin surge above $71,000 after its first major low under $64,000 is a normal reaction and does not indicate that the Bitcoin bear market has ended. The analyst stated that everything is unfolding exactly as expected, both in timing and price, in line with the Halving Cycles Theory. He further noted that the price sitting precisely at the first low of the Bear Bands indicator actually reinforces his bearish case for Bitcoin.
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Sharing a detailed price chart, Crypto Con draws on Bitcoin’s full price history dating back to 2011, mapping out recurring bear market sequences that have played out across every major cycle. Each of those cycles followed a consistent three-stage structure, moving through a first low, a second low, and a final cycle bottom before any sustained recovery took hold. Based on this sequence, Crypto Con argues that the Bitcoin market has not yet reached a bottom but could be heading towards one soon.
The Bear Bands framework on the chart places Bitcoin’s first low at around $64,000, a level it already achieved this February. The second low for the current cycle is projected near $44,500, indicating that the world’s largest cryptocurrency still has considerable downside ahead before the next major support is even tested.
Below this level, Crypto Con has set BTC’s cycle bottom around $28,500, marking the final and deepest projected level before a genuine reversal could be considered. With current prices currently holding above $72,000, a drop to $28,500 would represent a staggering decline of more than 60%, reinforcing the analyst’s belief that the bear market is far from over.
Expected Timeline For A BTC Bear Bottom
Beyond bearish price targets, the bottom timeline laid out in Crypto Con’s analysis presents a sobering outlook for investors and traders hoping for a quick recovery. The analyst has projected that the second low around $44,500 is not expected for at least another five months from the time of his post.
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This places Bitcoin’s next major price crash roughly in the August to October 2026 window, as indicated on the chart. If this timeline plays out, it would push any hope of a final bottom well beyond mid-2026.
If the projected cycle bottom at $28,500 plays out, Crypto Con expects it to arrive no earlier than three months after the second low. That points toward a November 2026 to January 2027 timeframe as the earliest window in which Bitcoin could realistically find its true price floor before it begins building toward a recovery.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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