Bitcoin has fallen under its 365-day MA, spot and institutional demand have remained weak, and liquidity has tightened; all indicators of a bear market.
The crypto market is at the moment in a bearish season, as confirmed by on-chain indicators. Demand has waned, liquidity is tightening, and technical construction exhibits draw back danger.
The market analysis agency CryptoQuant has released an in depth evaluation of the bear cycle, explaining simply how a lot the bears have dominated.
BTC Falls Under 365-Day MA
Based on the report, the CryptoQuant Bull Rating Index, which hovered round 80 (the bullish territory) as bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $126,000 in early October, is now sitting at zero. The index entered bearish territory after the October 10 liquidation occasion, which resulted in $19 billion in losses. BTC was nonetheless buying and selling round $110,000 on the time; because the asset’s worth hit $75,000, the index fell to zero.
On the time of writing, information from CoinMarketCap confirmed BTC altering palms under $68,000, with a 24-hour decline of at the least 7%. Bitcoin’s worth has declined 23% because it fell under its 365-day transferring common (MA) on November 12, 2025. The final time BTC fell under this metric was in March 2022. Analysts say the asset’s present efficiency is worse than the early 2022 bear part.
With technical construction confirming draw back danger, BTC has fallen under the decrease band of the Merchants’ On-chain Realized Value. The extent acted as the last word help throughout the bull market. The subsequent help zone now lies between $70,000 and $60,000.
Demand Weakens, Liquidity Tightens
Amid the downturn in costs, spot and institutional demand have remained weak. The Coinbase Bitcoin Value Premium has been damaging since mid-October, indicating weaker demand within the U.S. than in the remainder of the world.
Moreover, the U.S. spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market is witnessing a reversal in demand. This time final yr, the merchandise had loaded up greater than 46,000 BTC; nevertheless, they’re now web sellers, having offloaded about 15,000 BTC to this point. Their gross sales have created a requirement hole of greater than 50,000 BTC, contributing to promoting strain.
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Within the final 4 months, Bitcoin’s spot demand annual development has fallen 93% from 1.1 million to 77,000 BTC. This exhibits that the majority of this cycle’s demand development has handed.
On the liquidity entrance, the 60-day development of Tether’s (USDT) market cap has turned damaging (-$133 million) for the primary time since October 2023. The stablecoin’s growth peaked at $15.9 billion in late October 2025. The reversal is typical of bear market cycles.
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