A single Bitcoin (BTC) miner collected a full block reward on Jan. 13, claiming 3.125 BTC plus charges value near $300,000 at present costs.
The win wasn’t cut up amongst hundreds of pool contributors. One tackle obtained all the payout in an business dominated by industrial-scale mining operations commanding exahashes of compute energy.
However solo miners nonetheless handle to seek out blocks, not as a result of the percentages are favorable, however as a result of likelihood would not care about expectations.
The maths is brutal. Bitcoin’s community hashrate sits round 1,024 exahashes per second as of mid-January 2026, according to Hashrate Index. That is roughly 1.024 billion terahashes competing to unravel every block.
A pastime miner working a 6 TH/s ASIC faces roughly a 1-in-170-million likelihood per block try. The anticipated wait time to discover a single block at that hashrate exceeds 3,000 years.
But solo wins hold showing, with verified solo blocks hitting the chain each few weeks.
Mining is a Poisson course of (a statistics mannequin for random occasions occurring over time), a memoryless lottery the place every try is unbiased. The hashrate determines the likelihood per block, however likelihood would not implement easy distribution over brief timescales.
A miner working a 6 TH/s miner for a month has a 0.0025% likelihood of discovering a minimum of one block. That is practically zero, nevertheless it’s not zero. Multiply that tiny likelihood throughout tens of hundreds of solo miners globally, and somebody hits the jackpot frequently.
Solo mining tracker knowledge compiled by Bennet exhibits 22 verified solo blocks mined over the previous 12 months, with a median interval of 15.6 days between wins.
How solo mining truly works in 2026
Most solo wins come via solo mining providers like Solo CKPool, which gives Stratum work coordination so particular person miners can compete for full block rewards with out working all the stack themselves.
CKPool explicitly frames its service as “not a pool” within the financial sense, as there is no reward splitting amongst contributors. Every miner’s hashrate competes independently for the total block reward.
If a miner related to Solo CKPool finds a legitimate block, the coinbase transaction pays that miner’s tackle immediately, minus a 2% service price. At present, solely CKPool exhibits round 20,950 customers contributing roughly 188 petahashes of hashrate.
A more moderen mannequin is run-your-own solo pool software program, exemplified by Public Pool within the Umbrel ecosystem. This open-source software lets miners run a solo mining pool utilizing their very own node, retaining the total reward in the event that they hit a block. It removes the service price however requires extra technical setup.
What all fashions share is that the miner receives all the block reward for a profitable discover, slightly than a proportional share primarily based on contributed hashrate over time.
Both the miner wins every thing or wins nothing.
Odds are worse than anticipated, however higher than by no means
At Bitcoin’s present community hashrate of roughly 1,024 EH/s, a miner’s likelihood of discovering any given block equals their hashrate divided by the community’s complete hashrate.
For a 6 TH/s system, that is roughly one in 170 million per block.
Anticipated time to seek out one block scales inversely with that likelihood. Since Bitcoin produces a block roughly each 10 minutes, a 6 TH/s miner would count on to attend round 3,247 years to discover a single block.
A extra highly effective 200 TH/s ASIC would nonetheless take round 97 years to succeed in 1 TH/s. Even at 1 petahash, the anticipated wait drops to 19.5 years.
However anticipated time is just not the identical as likelihood over a hard and fast interval. A 6 TH/s miner has roughly a 0.0308% likelihood of discovering a minimum of one block over a full yr. But throughout hundreds of miners working comparable setups, a couple of will beat these odds.
For this reason solo mining wins are likely to cluster round mid-range hashrate ranges. A miner working 2.3 petahashes, far under industrial scale however nicely above hobbyist {hardware}, has roughly an 11% likelihood of discovering a block inside a yr.
Over a big sufficient inhabitants of miners in that vary, wins turn out to be predictable in mixture even when any particular person miner stays unlikely to succeed.
Current solo wins present the sample holding
Solo block discoveries have maintained a gradual cadence over the previous yr. Block 920,440, mined on Oct. 23, 2025, was awarded to a Public Pool miner, who collected 3.125 BTC plus roughly 0.016 BTC in charges.
Block 924,569 on Nov. 21, 2025, delivered roughly 3.146 BTC to a solo miner working via CKPool infrastructure.
One dramatic instance occurred on Nov. 23, 2025, when a miner working simply 6 TH/s, going through odds of about 1 in 170 million per block, efficiently discovered a block via CKPool and claimed the total reward.
FutureBit, which manufactures compact Bitcoin mining units designed for residence use, has documented several solo wins from Apollo miners. These units sometimes run within the single-digit or low-double-digit terahash vary, being too small to generate significant pool rewards however nonetheless able to sometimes discovering blocks.
Bennet’s solo mining tracker, which aggregates verified solo blocks throughout CKPool, Public Pool, FutureBit units, and different identified solo setups, exhibits 22 solo blocks discovered over the previous 12 months, up 29% year-over-year.
The common interval between solo wins throughout all tracked setups is 15.6 days, with the longest drought lasting 54 days. Complete rewards distributed to solo miners over that interval sum to roughly 69.35 BTC.
Why solo mining exists in any respect
The financial case for solo mining is weak if optimized for regular earnings.
Pool mining pays proportionally to the contributed hashrate, smoothing variance into predictable payouts. A miner contributing 200 TH/s to a pool receives roughly their share of that pool’s rewards, delivered repeatedly.
A solo miner with 200 TH/s receives nothing for years, then out of the blue receives 3.125 BTC plus charges.
The anticipated worth is equivalent, each approaches converge to the identical long-term return per unit of hashrate, however the variance profile is fully totally different. Industrial miners have debt service, operational costs, and electricity contracts that require predictable income.
Variance is an unhedgeable threat.
Solo mining persists as a result of a subset of miners values the variance itself. Some run mining {hardware} as a pastime or ideological dedication slightly than a profit-maximizing enterprise.
The psychological attraction of probably successful a full block outweighs the near-certainty of incomes nothing. Others deal with solo mining as a lottery ticket, economically irrational on an expected-value foundation, however defensible as leisure or a tail-risk wager.
Infrastructure enhancements have additionally lowered technical boundaries. Working a solo mining operation in 2015 required working a full Bitcoin node, configuring Stratum software program, and managing community connectivity.
CKPool and Public Pool cut back that setup to pointing mining {hardware} at a URL or putting in a plug-and-play app. The simpler it turns into to solo mine, the extra miners will strive it, and the extra seen solo wins will turn out to be.
The block that simply hit
The Jan. 13 block represents the most recent knowledge level in a well-established sample.
A single tackle obtained the total block reward value near $300,000 at Bitcoin’s value of round $94,000. The payout construction suggests the win got here via solo mining infrastructure. Nonetheless, with out a public declare from the miner or a verified pool tag within the coinbase, the precise setup stays ambiguous.
If the miner used Solo CKPool, the online payout can be 98% of the whole after the service price. If it got here via Public Pool or correct solo infrastructure, the miner stored the total quantity.
Both means, the win validates that solo mining continues to operate precisely as likelihood predicts: principally silent, sometimes spectacular.
The community will produce one other 144 blocks immediately. The overwhelming majority of rewards will circulate to industrial mining operations. However someplace in that stream of blocks, one other solo miner will ultimately hit.
The percentages have not improved. The issue hasn’t dropped. The community retains rising. But likelihood stays detached to scale, and lightning nonetheless strikes.
