Arthur Hayes thinks Zcash can transfer an order of magnitude quicker than most buyers count on—and he spelled out why in a Coin Bureau interview launched on November 3.
The previous BitMEX CEO ties the brand new Zcash bull case to a three-part story that mixes technical maturation, seen shifts in on-chain habits, and a looming provide inflection. “I believe that 10% to twenty% of the worth of Bitcoin fairly shortly is one thing that Zcash may obtain,” he stated—an estimate that, at present Bitcoin costs, interprets to roughly $10,000–$20,000 per ZEC.
Why Zcash Might Skyrocket To $10,000-$20,000
For Hayes, the expertise is now not the 2016 experiment that divided the market over ceremony theater and cryptographic belief. He recounted being “deep into Zcash in 2016” when BitMEX listed a pre-genesis futures market and spot costs briefly printed round “$3,000 a coin on Poloniex” earlier than provide stuffed in.
What’s modified, he argues, is the removing—by protocol upgrades—of the unique single greatest credibility drag. “One of many huge points with Zcash again then was this trusted setup situation… however primarily, I believe it was the Halo 2 upgrade just lately eliminated or perhaps a couple of years in the past eliminated that trusted setup situation.” That, in his telling, reframes Zcash from a intelligent however encumbered R&D challenge right into a privateness asset whose cryptography now clears the institutional sniff check.
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He {couples} that with direct user-level expertise. Hayes says he put in Zashi, Zcash’s flagship pockets, and used Close to Intents flows to protect and swap, which he likened to an industrial-strength mixer. “Whenever you do this, it’s primarily like Tornado Cash on steroids,” he stated, emphasizing that the ensuing output asset “seems, nevertheless it’s not linked to some other transaction.”
Prices stay a friction—“It’s undoubtedly not low-cost but”—however he factors to pattern knowledge he has reviewed displaying a secular rise in precise privateness utilization: “the quantity of shielded transactions is approaching I believe 30%, up from like a couple of proportion factors once I cared about Zcash a very long time in the past.” In different phrases, the privateness function set isn’t just theoretically stronger; it’s getting used.
The demand narrative rests on a easy declare: within the age of on-chain forensics and AI-enabled sample recognition, true cash-like privateness is a product with differentiated utility. Hayes attracts a pointy line between pseudonymity and privateness. “I consider in privateness cash… I believe Bitcoin being synonymous is definitely a great factor as a result of I would like to have the ability to observe Bitcoin, however I additionally wish to have web money the place there is no such thing as a traceability of that.”
He contrasts Zcash with Monero’s current headlines, citing experiences that “the Japanese authorities had been capable of deanonymize Monero by… linking collectively completely different disparate elements of some data.”
Shortage is the third pillar. Hayes flags the Zcash halving “arising in a couple of weeks, November,” framing it because the timing catalyst that might supercharge reflexivity if investor consideration and liquidity arrive in tandem. The availability lower shouldn’t be your complete story for him—he dismisses halving dogma in Bitcoin—however he does view a synchronous demand narrative plus a mechanical issuance drop as unusually potent for a small-float asset when a privateness bid is already rising on-chain.
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Liquidity and entry are exactly why he sees the setup as uneven. Zcash shouldn’t be broadly quotable, which is a threat and a possibility. “I hit up… eight or 9 OTC brokers. Solely two brokers would quote me Zcash,” he stated, describing how arduous it was to accumulate measurement by way of conventional venues. He expects that, if the value begins to pattern, the trail will run by way of permissionless rails relatively than regulated exchanges. “If the value rises excessive sufficient… I can purchase it on one in all these decentralized exchanges and that’ll be how you actually get entry… similar to how Bitcoin was again [then].”
Hayes additionally addresses the change in his personal posture, together with what catalyzed it. He credit a dinner throughout Token2049 with Naval Ravikant, who “started shilling me on Zcash,” prompting him to push previous his 2016-era objections and re-underwrite the protocol. “I purchased a couple of million bucks on the spot at that time,” he stated, including that he saved shopping for “though I purchased it after the 80% pump when Naval despatched out that tweet.”
Hayes believes the upside can compress into weeks relatively than years. In his phrases: “I’ve purchased a whole lot of it… I’m nonetheless shopping for it. I believe that that is in all probability going to be one in all my higher trades of the cycle.”
At press time, ZEC traded at $464.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
