Bets on Polymarket Show Bitcoin (BTC) $200K Odds Are Slimmer Than Alien Discovery

Aliens extra possible than a $200K Bitcoin? Polymarket bettors appear to assume so.

Investor sentiment flipped sharply bearish as Bitcoin (BTC) and main crypto belongings succumbed to macroeconomic pressures. Polymarket’s newest tweet has injected a recent dose of skepticism into the Bitcoin narrative.

The decentralized prediction market humorously famous that the chances of aliens being confirmed this yr (6%) barely surpass Bitcoin hitting $200,000 (5%). But beneath the levity, Polymarket’s knowledge highlighted a extra critical near-term threat.

Market Panic

Polymarket is seeing a 52% likelihood that Bitcoin might crash beneath $100,000 this month. That is in keeping with the broader market unease, as crypto analyst Ted Pillow not too long ago said that Bitcoin has already misplaced its essential $108,000 assist degree, which has left a minimal buffer till $101,000-$102,000. Pillow said {that a} reclaim of $110,000 might set off a short-term bounce, however in any other case, merchants ought to brace for extra ache earlier than reduction arrives.

Including to the cautionary sentiment, Physician Revenue, one other fashionable market analyst, called the present setting the “early part of the bear market,” which is seeing intense misleading mini-rallies and sharp draw back strikes. He predicted the macro backside would finally settle between $60,000-$70,000.

Based on Physician Revenue, merchants ought to anticipate growing promoting stress, with the Worry & Greed Index seemingly reaching excessive concern ranges within the coming days, additional backed by the pink numbers throughout the charts. As such, these components paint an image of a market navigating a precarious steadiness.

“Keep in mind, lifeless cat bounces are the most important enemy for us shorts. Play them or ignore them, however don’t battle them.”

Defensive Stance

Macro uncertainty continues to weigh closely on Bitcoin, and Glassnode revealed a serious change in sentiment throughout markets and derivatives. Over the previous week, gold has outperformed Bitcoin by greater than 20%, reclaiming a part of its “store-of-value” enchantment. This was indicative of buyers’ rising warning towards crypto.

This warning has spilled over into the choices market. Brief-dated BTC volatility spiked sharply in a single day, whereas front-end choices traded round 50 vol as merchants paid up for quick draw back safety. BTC skew nonetheless behaves like a macro asset, favoring places – draw back safety stays pricier than upside publicity amidst defensive positioning. The market is balanced, as seen with some accounts rolling safety decrease, others promoting volatility on the dip, and some selectively shopping for low cost calls. General, the tone is cautious however not one-sided.

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Broader volatility metrics affirm this defensiveness. Put-heavy skew, bid wing vols, and robust demand for tail hedges point out merchants stay targeted on draw back threat. Yr-end upside publicity has cooled as draw back vol continues to dominate. For these keen to take dangers, promoting places or put spreads to finance November topside stays a viable technique.