Bitcoin Will Soar, Altcoins Won’t—Charles Edwards Explains Why

In an interview with Korean crypto researcher Juhyuk Bak, often known as @JuhyukB, Capriole Investments CEO Charles Edwards laid out a putting divergence within the crypto asset markets: whereas Bitcoin may double this yr, altcoins stay structurally impaired and much from any significant rotation.

Bitcoin Might Hit $200,000 This Yr

Talking from the angle of a macro quant hedge fund operator, Edwards was unequivocally bullish on Bitcoin, stating, “If the info stays within the present development we’re in, I believe $150–200K is certainly attainable this yr.” The founding father of Capriole, a fund recognized for pioneering on-chain valuation fashions like Hash Ribbons, Power Worth, and the Macro Index, grounded this forecast in an internet of interlocking technical, sentiment, and macroeconomic alerts.

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“We’re printing new all-time highs on each day and weekly closes,” Edwards famous. “So long as we keep above $104K […] so long as the Macro Index developments up, and US liquidity continues to rise, this atmosphere could be very bullish.”

Capriole’s proprietary Macro Index—a machine studying mannequin aggregating over 100 inputs from Fed liquidity to bond and fairness markets—has turned decisively constructive. Bitcoin’s rally, Edwards emphasised, is additional strengthened by metrics like MVRV Z-Score, Hodler Progress Charges, and Power Worth, all signaling room for growth.

However whereas Bitcoin exhibits power throughout a number of dimensions, altcoins are telling a really totally different story.

The Demise Of The Previous Altcoin Cycle

Edwards kept away from naming particular altcoins however delivered a transparent macro verdict: the capital circulate dynamics have modified, and altcoins are not on an equal footing with Bitcoin. “Structurally, issues are fairly a bit totally different this cycle […] the largest driving forces are Bitcoin ETFs and US coverage. That’s making a centralizing impact—funneling capital immediately into Bitcoin,” he defined.

He pointed to the historic cycles of retail-led altcoin rallies, adopted by catastrophic drawdowns—typically exceeding 99% losses. “Retail has simply gotten destroyed,” he stated bluntly. “There’s a fatigue within the altcoin area that wasn’t there 4 or 5 years in the past.”

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The legacy of failed ICOs, damaged tokenomics, and occasions just like the FTX collapse have left lasting scars. In the meantime, establishments are avoiding the dangers and complexity of smaller-cap digital property, opting as an alternative for regulated Bitcoin publicity via ETFs and company treasury allocations. “It was once extra of a stage taking part in subject. That’s not the case,” Edwards stated. “The true cash is flowing into Bitcoin—and that most likely continues for some time.”

When Will Altcoins Wake Up?

Regardless of the grim tone, Edwards doesn’t dismiss altcoins fully. He views a powerful altcoin cycle as conditional—not not possible, however depending on clear Bitcoin dominance first.

Utilizing Capriole’s Hypothesis Index and Crypto Breadth fashions, which monitor the relative power and value motion of altcoins, he made a key statement: “Proper now, solely 5% of altcoins are above their 200-day shifting common. That’s not bullish.”

He in contrast the present setup to late 2020, when Bitcoin surged from $10K to $60K earlier than altcoins started outperforming. That rotation required Bitcoin to first breach earlier all-time highs decisively. “You need Bitcoin to hit one thing like $140K whereas alts are nonetheless underperforming. That might be the perfect setup […] that’s when capital begins rotating downstream,” he defined.

Conversely, if altcoins start pumping prematurely, whereas Bitcoin stays vary sure, Edwards sees that as a high sign. “That’s often the final puff of air,” he warned.

Cycles Are Altering, Dangers Are Evolving

Past value motion, Edwards questioned the relevance of conventional halving cycles. He argued that the influence of miners—as soon as the first driver of Bitcoin provide dynamics—has diminished considerably attributable to ETFs, company treasuries, and sovereign actors like Michael Saylor. “That four-year cycle is useless—or not less than dramatically weaker. Miners are actually simply 2–3% of the overall provide circulate. The true drivers at this time are establishments,” he stated.

This evolution reduces the chance of 80% drawdowns and will increase the danger of systemic leverage—notably from publicly traded Bitcoin-heavy companies. Whereas not a direct concern, Edwards sees potential for long-term vulnerabilities if main gamers overextend.

Edwards additionally mentioned diversification inside Capriole’s portfolio. Whereas Bitcoin stays the agency’s core allocation, he revealed publicity to quantum computing equities like IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), D-Wave (QBTS), and QUBT. “I believe quantum is like Bitcoin in 2015. It’s early, it’s unstable, however the long-term CAGR could possibly be even greater than Bitcoin’s.”

He added that gold additionally performs a strategic position, not as a substitute however as a hedge. Capriole screens the gold-to-equity ratio intently, and its breakout above the 200-day shifting common is seen as a traditionally bullish sign—each for gold and Bitcoin.

In closing, Edwards urged traders to tune out a lot of the monetary information cycle. “In all probability 99% of headlines don’t matter,” he stated. As a substitute, deal with game-changing shifts: Fed pivots, global liquidity expansions, and true structural reconfigurations of capital circulate. “We’re wired to overreact to dangerous information. The bottom line is to filter it down to a couple macro drivers that really transfer the market—and Bitcoin proper now has these working in its favor.”

Till altcoins present significant breadth and break their long-term resistance constructions, Edwards’ message is evident: Bitcoin will soar. Altcoins gained’t—not less than, not but.

At press time, BTC traded at $105,557.

Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com